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Not quite the permutations I was expecting to be writing about at the start of day but still, let's not get carried away too much.
Tonight's record-breaking win at the San Siro (our best win in the Champs League, Inter's worst loss) still leaves us needing a result next time out, at home to an impressive Lokomotiv side who also need a result.
Here are the possibilities for the next matches in 2 weeks time on Wednesday 10th December.
First, note that having finished the matches against them, we are ahead of both Dynamo and Inter on the head-to-head results. So if we finish level on points with either we will finish above them (and we can't finish level with them both).
If Arsenal beat Lokomotiv at Highbury then Arsenal will top the group, regardless of the other result, because the closest that either Inter or Dynamo could get to us would be if Inter win in Kiev, in which case they would still only be level with us on points.
If Arsenal lose to Lokomotiv then Arsenal will finish 3rd in the group and go into the UEFA Cup. This is because either Inter or Dynamo must overtake us on points (Lokomotiv would win the group), but they can't both overtake us.
If Arsenal and Lokomotiv draw then things depend on the other game. First, Lokomotiv would finish above us on points. If Inter and Dynamo draw then we finish 2nd since we'd be level on points with Inter but ahead on the head-to-head. If either Inter or Dynamo win then they overtake us on points, they finish 2nd and we finish 3rd.
So it's pretty clear that Arsenal can finish 3rd at worst, but that finishing 2nd is very unlikely (it only happens if both matches are drawn). Basically we need to win against Lokomotiv and top the group. Note that if we do win, Lokomotiv's only hope is a draw in the other game, whereas a draw is enoug to put Lokomotiv through. On the positive side, it's also worth noting that Lokomotiv have been far more impressive at home than away.
To see the table, results, and fixtures, click on the FAQ link (above and below this text).
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